Saturday, November 16, 2024

Analysis | Many Republicans don’t align with new messages at GOP convention

MILWAUKEE — Politicians are studied in the art of telling people what they want to hear. No modern politician has been better at this than Donald Trump. His principles are often negotiable, sometimes on a day-to-day basis. And he’ll often take multiple positions or adopt a hazy posture, allowing people of different stripes to believe his true position is the one they, too, hold.

But rarely has this strained effort to be all things to all people been on display the way it has been so far here at the Republican National Convention.

Monday’s program was chock full of efforts to reach groups that don’t generally align with Republicans, from Latino and Black voters to union members.

But the messages used to accomplish that task were often discordant — with Trump’s usual mien, with one another, with those of the party’s base. And while the party has become defined much more by “Trump” than any set of policies, that can’t help but create some tensions.

The big one Monday concerned the party’s increasingly isolationist posture. After Trump picked as his running mate one of the most prominent skeptics of Ukraine aid, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) — Vance once said he didn’t “really care” what happened to Ukraine — a succession of speakers delivered remarks in that vein.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) criticized aid to “foreign nations,” while tech investor David Sacks blamed the U.S. government for provoking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by pushing NATO expansion.

While much of the GOP base is skeptical of Ukraine aid, a healthy segment of it remains hawkish on the war. Recent polling shows more than 4 in 10 Republicans believe that the amount of aid to Ukraine has been not enough or “about right.”

After the most recent Ukraine aid package passed, a poll showed Republicans leaned against it, but not a majority or even by a huge margin. While 44 percent opposed the aid, 30 percent supported it.

And in contrast to Sacks’s comment, a Chicago Council of Global Affairs poll last year showed fewer than 4 in 10 Republicans blamed either NATO (37 percent) or the United States (32 percent) for Russia’s invasion. Republicans also still lean in favor of NATO and even Ukraine’s membership in it.

The messages are also somewhat at odds with Trump himself. While he has projected skepticism about Ukraine aid, he didn’t really fight the most recent package, and he has said that Ukraine’s survival is “important to us!”

Sacks wasn’t the only speaker who would have been alien at previous GOP conventions. So too were a pair of prominent speakers in the all-important 9 o’clock Central hour.

Model and TV personality Amber Rose, whose views on sexuality, social justice and religion have caused some conservatives to blanch at her selection, spoke about her pro-Trump conversion.

“I realized Donald Trump and his supporters don’t care if you’re Black, White, gay or straight; it’s all love,” she said.

Earlier in the program, though, multiple speakers had made comments skeptical of the transgender community and aligning with efforts like the so-called “don’t say gay” bills in Florida and other states. (“And let me state this clearly: There are only two genders,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia said. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin cited “the sexualization and indoctrination of our children.”)

Recent data also suggests many in the party’s base do care if you’re gay; a Gallup poll last month showed just 40 percent of Republicans said having gay relations was “morally acceptable.” That was down from 56 percent just two years ago. The party has also recently drifted away from supporting same-sex marriage.

After Rose came Teamsters president Sean O’Brien, who didn’t endorse Trump but did deliver the kind of anti-corporate speech that would have been at home at many Democratic National Conventions.

“The biggest recipients of welfare in this country are corporations. And this is real corruption,” O’Brien said.

He added at another point that big business was “waging a war against American workers.”

While Trump often talks about reining in the power of corporations — and has since 2016 — his actual policies were generally a boon to big business and were anti-union. And The Washington Post has reported recently that Trump is keen on cutting corporate tax rates again in a second term.

There is no question that the GOP base has taken on an increasingly anti-corporate stance in recent years. But recent Pew Research Center polling has shown Republican-leaning voters say 65 percent to 33 percent that government regulation of business generally does more harm than good. And 2022 Gallup polling showed Republicans overwhelmingly saying there should be less regulation of businesses and industries.

The effort to pull unions into the GOP coalition is an uneasy one. Pew data this year showed conservative voters said 69 percent to 26 percent that labor unions have a negative impact on the country. And yet there was the head of one of the most divisive unions being given one of the most prominent platforms at the GOP convention to bash big business.

And that points to the risk in this for the GOP. Republicans have been plenty willing to let Trump guide the ship and take the party new places, including on foreign policy. Most recently, antiabortion activists have largely stood by as Trump and his team have watered down the party’s opposition to abortion, including in the new party platform.

But as the party makes its big, scripted pitch to the American people, much of what’s being presented bears little resemblance to the party even of a few years ago. Traditional conservative Republicans might be willing to let a few things slide in the name of winning, but the party is certainly putting that to the test.

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