- Article Written By Arvin Niknia, Independent Author
In this article, I will look at the fall of Assad. The event came unexpectedly for many, and it happened over 11 days. In an interview, Bashar al-Assad (1965-) said that he is with Iran because Iran can support his government both financially and militarily. Saudi Arabia cannot do that. Iran is the only country in the Middle East that has this capacity. To understand the relationship between Bashar al-Assad and Iran, we must go back to the Iranian revolution in 1979.
Shortly after the revolution, Saddam Hussein (1937-2006) in Iraq declared war on Iran. Western countries such as France and Germany supported Saddam Hussein, with the United States behind them. Many Arab monarchs also supported Saddam Hussein. Saddam Hussein had been promised a triumph, but the plan was to weaken Iran so that the Iranian revolution would not spread to neighboring countries.
Directly after the revolution, Saddam Hussein began sending troops and tanks to the border while Iran was still busy executing generals and opposition groups. Hafez al-Assad (1930-2000) in Syria did not like Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. The Syrian Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party (Ba’ath Party) was in conflict and competition with the Iraqi Ba’ath Party. Therefore, Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, saw an opportunity to weaken Iraq’s Saddam Hussein.
They also fought a battle in the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990), where Saddam chose to support the Christians against the Palestinians to take revenge on Syria. The Lebanese Civil War ended with a Syrian occupation of Lebanon in 2005 due to Israel. Hafez al-Assad helped Iran in the war against Saddam Hussein by buying weapons for Syria and sending them to Iran when Iran’s quick-witted revolution came on the sanctions list. Syria also allowed Iran to use their airspace to attack Iraq.
Additionally, Syria and Iran had a common enemy called Israel. The Free Officers were all against Israel; therefore, they were overthrown one by one in the illegal wars against the Middle East carried out by the US and its allies. When Bashar al-Assad took power in Syria in 2000, it was shortly after the end of the Damascus Spring. The Ba’ath Party could not allow democracy in the country.
However, the activists did not stop their fight for reforms and democracy. It resulted in thousands of prisoners in Sednaya Prison, which can be compared to the Iranian Evin prison. A place where activists and political opponents are tortured to death and their bodies are either buried in an unknown location or burned.
Not long after the revolution, Iran succeeded in interfering in the Lebanese civil war by creating the militant group Hizbullah. Hizbullah took direct orders from Iran and played a massive role in the Lebanese civil war against Israel. Shortly after the revolution, Yemen’s Shiite opposition leader and Palestinian Yasser Arafat (1929-2004) pledged allegiance to the leader of the Iranian revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini (1902-1989). This loyalty paved the way for the creation of an axis of resistance against the West, Israel, and the United States. The current Iranian leader calls Syria the tent of the resistance movement and pays tribute to Bashar al-Assad as the only Arab country on the axis of resistance.
Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi soon called for a holy war against Iraq and lauded Iran for its fierce anti-colonialist stance. Similarly, Iran actively championed anti-colonialist movements across the region, extending its influence. Shortly after engaging with the Palestinian PLO, Iran shifted its support to Hamas, supplying resources from weapons to essential supplies. Hizbullah, meanwhile, demonstrated its power during the Syrian civil war, solidifying Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
The long civil war that started in 2011 started with Russia and pro-Iranian militias helping Bashar Assad’s forces in the civil war, while the US chose to support anti-Assad groups such as ISIS. The CIA had plans to topple Assad. What was called the Arab Spring under the Obama administration helped to topple anti-Israeli regimes such as Libya. Already in 1998, long before September 11, 2001, the US had plans to overthrow Saddam Hussein in Iraq, partly because of Israel.
Operation Timber Sycamore in Syria fueled the growth of Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Many of the weapons that the US and allies, such as Saudi Arabia, provided to rebels in Syria ended up going to ISIS. Just as Operation Cyclone in Afghanistan set the stage for Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Israel was directly supporting Al-Qaeda. The Times of Israel reported in 2015 that “Israel has opened its borders with Syria to provide medical treatment to Nusra Front and al-Qaida fighters wounded in the ongoing civil war.”
In 2017, Israel’s former defense minister Moshe Ya’alon said that ISIS had “apologized” to Tel Aviv after accidentally attacking Israeli forces in the Golan Heights, which is sovereign Syrian territory that has been illegally occupied by Israel for decades, according to international law. Russian President Putin asks the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani (1957-2020) to participate directly in the Syrian civil war with his Quds Forces (Iranian Revolutionary Guards).
Syria and Libya are just a few examples of American CIA operations; the Ethiopia–Somalia conflict and Sudan are other examples. The long civil wars that have torn countries apart. I remember Hillary Clinton (1947) had a plan similar to that for Iran, as they did in Libya.
Turkey directly supports ISIS in the fight against Kurds in the Kobani area in Syria. Turkey’s parliamentary opposition, Ali Edibogluan, said that ISIS had smuggled $800 million worth of oil into Turkey from Syria and Iraq. The oil exports stopped in December 2015 after Russia bombed the tankers that transferred the oil to Turkey.
After the civil war, Assad tried to bring help from the Arab monarchs who had also supported ISIS in Syria. Assad recognizes islands located in the Persian Gulf as part of the Gulf states’ islands with the hope of being able to get the 24 billion dollars for the reconstruction of Syria that they had promised him, but this will never materialize as Assad still would not exchange Iran with Arab monarchs. Assad also did not want to negotiate with Turkish President Erdogan about the Syrian refugees in Turkey. Assad has several times accused Erdogan of being an insane man who does not recognize Syria as a country and wants to create a Neo-Ottoman era. This was confirmed when Erdogan said that due to World War II, Turkey lost Syria.
After the civil war in Syria, Iran and Russia think they can trust Turkey; therefore, Iran is trying to start a war against Israel. The war against Israel means that Hezbollah in Lebanon is significantly weakened, with most of its leaders dying in the war. The war also means that many Iranian generals were liquidated in Syria in Israeli bombardments. Erdogan said he will move into Lebanon if Israel does. Erdogan was full of lies because he did not even close the Israeli embassy in Turkey. It ends with Iran standing alone in an indirect war against Israel. It turns out that Iranian notions of driving all Muslim countries into a war against Israel become a dream because it transpires that Turkey and Arab monarchs are more worried about Iranian influence in the region than Israel and the Palestine conflict. The same thing happened to Egypt in its time in 1973 when Egypt and Syria stood alone in a war against Israel and were let down by Arab countries.
After Assad’s fall, the Syrian flag was turned over immediately to symbolize that Syria was no longer part of the resistance movement against Israel. The two stars on the Syrian flag symbolize the ”Arab socialism” of the Ba’ath party. According to the Times of Israel, the Syrian militants thanked Israel for bombing Hezbollah. They credited Israel’s war on Lebanon with helping them capture Aleppo.
A rebel commander called on Israel to attack Syria directly, saying, “We call on the Israeli leadership to launch intensive attacks against the positions and troops of the Iran-backed militias in Syrian territory.” Israel has already bombed Syria hundreds of times in the past decades, targeting anti-colonialist fighters from the Axis of Resistance. The US has also bombed Syria dozens of times since 2011, including most recently in November 2024. The US has known all along about ISIS camps in Syria but chose to bomb 75 roofs right after Assad’s fall. It seems the US no longer needed ISIS fighters in the fight against Assad. Rebel groups attack right after Israel and Hizbullah make peace. They knew Hizbullah would not start a new war against Israel because of Assad. If Hizbullah would come and help Assad, then Israel would bomb them in Syria, and probably a new war would start.
Moreover, Hizbullah was greatly weakened, had lost many of its top leaders, and was not organized to start a new war. Iran and Russia initially wanted to use military force against rebel groups in Syria, and many expected Iran to go into Syria just like Israel did, but this did not benefit either Russia or Iran, as they would both suffer heavy losses in Syria. Assad’s forces were not morally strong, and therefore, Iran and Russia had to stay in Syria for a longer time. This would cost them great loss, just like what happened to the US in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia was already at war and could not bear another long war. A soldier who was paid 18 dollars a month in Syria had no intention of fighting for Assad.
US sanctions, civil war, corruption, and repression had made Assad hugely unpopular. Iran chose to recruit several special forces from Iran and Iraq but was blocked by the US and Israel. They had blocked all the roads, both from the air and from the ground. Iranian forces in Syria would be more legitimate targets for Israel in Syria as Israel was at war with Iran. The US base in Syria, Al-Tanf, was intended to minimize Iranian influence in Syria in favor of Israel. We repeatedly used ISIS as an excuse for the base’s presence. Assad had several times asked the US and Turkey to withdraw their soldiers from Syria, but in vain.
In December 2024, the Syrian Free Army launched an offensive from al-Tanf on Palmyra with logistical support from United States forces. US forces in northeastern Syria have a mission to secure oil fields not only from ISIS but also from the Syrian government and Russian forces. ”One-third of Syrian territory was owned via the US military, with its local partner, the Syrian Democratic Forces”, or SDF. The Kurdish-majority SDF has acted as a US proxy, using oil revenue to fund their separatist operations, destabilizing Syria’s central government. Just like Iraq, Syria asked the US to leave the country. However, instead, the US chose to introduce sanctions against Iraq and Syria, which “violates the country’s sovereignty and international law.”.
In September 2018, Putin and Erdogan agreed to turn Idlib into a “de-escalation zone.” The area was intended to act as a buffer between the two sides, with clear control lines, but fighting has continued in the zone. Erdogan is unable to tell the Turks why he is sending his army to fight in Syria and why his soldiers are being killed there because the issue has nothing to do with Turkish interests but with his Muslim Brotherhood ideology.
To maintain its influence, Turkey made peace with Russia in 2020. Idlib was the last city in Syria that was still under Turkish influence. Turkey takes advantage of the weak situation and breaks its agreement with Iran and Russia. Arab monarchs, along with the US and Turkey, met without Iran, Russia, and representatives from Syria to discuss Syria’s future. This reminds me of the Sykes-Picot agreement. Many Arab and European countries will invest in Syria to strengthen their influence. Qatar will most likely try to send its gas to Europe through Turkey. Both Qatar and Turkey make money from this. Assad opposed this because of Russia.
The Taliban in Afghanistan were among the first to congratulate HTS. It is because they share the same ideology. HTS leader Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (1982-) was imprisoned in 2003 in Iraq. He was released in 2011 when the Syrian civil war broke out. He gets money from ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi (1971-2019) to create an ISIS-like movement in Syria. It seems that HTS does not care about Israel and Turkey’s occupation of Syria. The HTS leader has informed Israel that after Iran and Hezbollah, your presence is no longer needed. It seems Israel is changing the Middle East in its favor. With the weapons the US and Germany sell to Israel, Israel has been able to change the balance of power in the Middle East.
Iran spent over 30 billion dollars in Syria and got nothing back. The Iranian resistance movement appears to be collapsing. Now, Israel is only waiting for Donald Trump (1946-) to take over power and introduce tough sanctions against Iran. Iran tried to assassinate Trump several times. Iran already has difficulty selling its oil to China due to sanctions.
China has strategically capitalized on sanctions against Russia and Iran, securing Iranian oil at significantly reduced prices, often 20-30% below market rates. Iran’s economic struggles and corruption have left it vulnerable while tensions ripple across the region, with Israel reportedly eyeing Yemen and Iran as part of its broader plans. The increasingly militarized West Bank, tied to Iranian influence, seems poised for a decisive Israeli response, awaiting a moment reminiscent of October 7.
Benjamin Netanyahu once remarked that we had waited long for this pivotal moment. The vision is clear: to eliminate threats to Israel and establish pro-Western, Israel-friendly governments across the Middle East. In Syria, signs of transformation are evident—alcohol is permitted, headscarves are optional, the currency is strengthening, and sanctions by the West and the U.S. are poised to be lifted.
The only thing the West is afraid of is that the HTS leader suddenly shows more loyalty to the Muslim Brotherhood ideology. Israel has warned several Western countries that sided with Palestine that Israel will close its embassy. Yemen will probably experience something similar to Lebanon: the top leaders were eliminated. Iran is going to collapse due to economic reasons and chaos. Salafist jihadists can be used to destabilize Iranian borders. Meanwhile, if Israel attacks Iranian oil and strategic sites, the Islamic Republic in Iran will collapse. This is what happens with ideologies.
The questions are : Will Turkey and maybe Israel take over Syria? Will Turkey help the US and Israel in the fight against Iran? Will Russia betray Iran?
